Although 2021 has already begun, this unfortunately does not mean that the problems brought about by the year that has just ended have left us. On the contrary, the changes that occurred in 2020 will still be felt for a long time and, therefore, many of the economic prospects for this new year still have their roots in the remarkable events of the end of the decade.
In an exclusive class for LIT students, Prof. Dr. José Cláudio Securato presented some of the trends for the Brazilian economic scenario in 2021, considering that we are still living in a moment of insecurity since the crisis brought about by Covid-19 is not over yet and much of what is speculated for this year that has just arrived will depend on the health and economic measures that will be taken in relation to the pandemic.
Outlook for the Brazilian economic scenario in 2021
Political environment
What happens in Brazilian politics is crucial to denmark whatsapp data investors' confidence in the market . Regarding the pandemic, economic expectations depend on decisions related to aid, which kept the economy functioning in 2020, and mainly on the creation of a vaccination plan. For Securato, the vaccine is a sign of safety and stimulus for the economy. "But the fact is that Brazil is far behind, there is still no plan for this. Without a vaccine, there will be no opening", he emphasizes.
Furthermore, 2021 brings with it the election of the new president of the Chamber of Deputies, which will take place in February, and also the beginning of the new mayors elected last year. "These forces will define the new political framework that will guide the next two years," comments the Professor.
GDP
Professor Securato made some considerations related to the main factors that make up the GDP (Gross Domestic Product), an index that allows us to assess whether the Brazilian economy grew in a given period.Infographic How GDP is calculated
Consumption
In 2020, aid reduced the impacts on consumption caused by unemployment, allowing the economy to continue running. Thus, purchasing power in 2021 will also be impacted by this aid. There is also the prospect of low purchasing intentions at the moment, that is, out of fear, people prefer to save rather than spend.
Investments
Securato points out that there should be few results from concessions and privatizations, in addition to few changes in foreign investments. The positive point is that, with low interest rates, there is plenty of money in the world that can be allocated to other items such as the stock market and even businesses. However, in his view, there is another problem: "Brazil is cornered on the environmental issue. It is selling itself poorly, with a speech against the environment and preservation. I think we have to have a more constructive stance, we are dealing with the issue in the wrong way", he highlights.