Sharp stratification of the population in the Russian Federation: the rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer
One of the arguments of the Central Bank in its forecasts for inflation to decrease to 4-5% in 2025 and the confidence that this is exactly how it will happen is the recorded growth of the population's income. However, this argument is valid provided that these incomes grow on a broad front, that is, cover the majority of the population, Vozhov points out.
At the same time, the same Rosstat records a significant stratification of the population according to this indicator: the rich are getting richer, and the poor are getting poorer, he adds.
"This stratification can probably be observed in the dynamics of deposits and loans of the population - there is a very significant growth of both of these indicators, i.e. one part of the population saves henan mobile number database significantly, while the second is in dire need of additional funds. Averaging the indicator of the population's income with its simultaneous financial stratification can give a distorted picture," the financier believes.
At the same time, Russia has a whole set of pro-inflationary indicators of cost inflation, Vozhov is sure. Tightening supervision of compliance with sanctions led to serious restrictions in settlements in international trade in 2024. Tariffs for money transfers have increased, the transfer schemes used have led to the need to freeze a significant share of export revenue outside the jurisdiction of Russia, which, in turn, has led to the depreciation of the ruble and an increase in import prices. Logistics costs are growing due to the constant change of routes and their extension. Forced and deliberate import substitution leads to a local increase in prices for the replaced products. The transformation of the economy also leads to a transformation of the labor market, which causes focal deficits and an increase in labor costs, the financier lists the factors.
"Considering the volumes of borrowing accumulated in the economy, the high level of interest rates is definitely transferred to the prices of sales of products, works, services. Any other opinion is unfounded, even in government contracts one of the components of the price justification is interest payments on loans attracted for the implementation of contracts," says Vozhov.