The increase in episodes of heavy rainfall and periods of drought increase the risks (flooding in particular). Drought even has an aggravating effect on the latter, because it reduces the soil's capacity to absorb excess precipitation [4] . The alternation of these two phenomena also increases the problems of shrinkage-swelling of clay soils. In France, this phenomenon exposes more than 4 million homes to potential damage, which constitutes the second largest source of compensation for natural disasters [5] . This can also threaten the health of populations because drought increases air pollution and pollen allergies [6] . In California, a fungus, coccidioidomycosis, responsible for "valley fever" (a respiratory disease that can become a chronic illness), greatly benefits from the conditions of alternating droughts and heavy rainfall [7] .
Strong winds are also responsible for switzerland phone number list a lot of damage to property and people (roofs torn off, cars damaged, etc.) [8] .
Finally, rising sea levels increase the risk of coastal erosion, threaten drinking water reserves located near the coast and salinize the land. Some of these are agricultural and may, in fact, become unsuitable for cultivation [9] [10] . But the predictive power of this variable can also be used inland, where the relevance of sea level could be questioned at first glance. In statistics, such a variable can nevertheless serve as a proxy: it can indirectly integrate meteorological phenomena that are not used explicitly.
The IACI indices defined for the Iberian Peninsula (SACI for Spain and PACI for Portugal) are based on exactly the same methodology as the North American ACI (for the United States and Canada). They can therefore be directly compared to the French ICAF.
We do not include the Australian AACI index in this comparison. Although it was initially also based on the North American ACI methodology, it was revised to retain only three of the six climate variables, making it less comparable to other indices. In addition, the AACI is calibrated to a different reference period, namely 1981–2010.