Two questions. They are not very connected
Posted: Sun Feb 02, 2025 9:38 am
Denis Dovgopoly: I'll add, about never say never. 2008, autumn, the beginning of the crisis. In Kiev, a business plan was being written for the creation of a company that would do, what do you think? Sell clothes over the Internet. And there was an investor from Luxembourg, reading this business plan, he had a board meeting at the fund the day after tomorrow and he had to make a decision: to invest or not to invest. To which I told him: "David, these are clothes! You can't sell them over the Internet! You have to try them on, touch them... and where are you investing, into nowhere." He looked at me and said: "If it takes off, then in a few years you'll bring me a bottle to Luxembourg. And I brought it to him in 2011. The company was called kupiVIP.
First, how do you think the real estate market will develop in luxembourg number data principle and how will the course of globalization, re-globalization and megacities be connected with this. The second question is, how do you think the marketing market will develop and in particular the Internet marketing.
Alexander Olshansky: I need a clarifying answer, are you a real estate market specialist?
- No. It just seems to me that in our country it’s a kind of litmus test.
Alexander Olshansky: Look, the thing is that the real estate market has very little to do with the real estate that we use as housing. These are not our apartments.
- In particular, commercial.
Look at the story with the real estate market in general. Once again, Dima Yekhanurov told me where the word real estate came from. Real in this word, where?
- King?
Alexander Olshansky: Exactly! It is Royal estate. It is royal real estate. In general, real estate is not ours. They are constantly trying to convince us that it is ours, but it is not ours, it is royal. Real estate always belongs to the sovereign. And the value of real estate is actually a function of the state. That is, if gangs start walking the streets here tomorrow, then all real estate will depreciate, while it itself will not change in any way. In fact, the value of real estate is a function of the state and the society in which this real estate is located. Therefore, when we talk about the real estate market, we actually have to ask another question: what is the prospect of society in this territory? This is actually one and the same. Of course, some fluctuations related to financial things are possible - there are some planetary things related to the cost of loans. We are all shouting now: make us cheap loans so that we can buy real estate. But you understand that the price of real estate is directly related to the loan interest rate and is inversely related. As soon as loans become cheaper, the price of real estate will increase exactly the same amount. That is, if you measure real estate, roughly speaking, in time, how much you need to work to pay off this loan. This value is much less subject to fluctuations than the interest rate itself or the cost itself. That is, in America, in order to buy a house, you need to pay off the loan within 30 years, on average. You will probably be surprised, but in Ukraine the situation is similar. The average person can buy an average, not very prestigious home on credit in 30 years. You see, therefore this distance in time is unlikely to change much. And you, as an individual, are interested in the distance, because you have only one life, and you cannot afford to wait 100 years. Therefore, you are interested in the distance, not the absolute rate, and you cannot play on this. It can be assumed that interest rates will fall, and real estate will become more expensive. You can't play on this because you are tied to your apartment where you live. You can't sell it and become homeless. It's a completely different story with investors who are not tied to real estate. In general, the global real estate market, if you evaluate it in a measure or on some scale, then you just need to calculate the term: how many years does it take the average person to pay off their average housing. Here, this "average housing" is very important, because, you see, just 30 years ago, the average housing was a "Khrushchevka". And when you ask a question about the real estate market today, you most likely mean something else, not a "Khrushchevka".
First, how do you think the real estate market will develop in luxembourg number data principle and how will the course of globalization, re-globalization and megacities be connected with this. The second question is, how do you think the marketing market will develop and in particular the Internet marketing.
Alexander Olshansky: I need a clarifying answer, are you a real estate market specialist?
- No. It just seems to me that in our country it’s a kind of litmus test.
Alexander Olshansky: Look, the thing is that the real estate market has very little to do with the real estate that we use as housing. These are not our apartments.
- In particular, commercial.
Look at the story with the real estate market in general. Once again, Dima Yekhanurov told me where the word real estate came from. Real in this word, where?
- King?
Alexander Olshansky: Exactly! It is Royal estate. It is royal real estate. In general, real estate is not ours. They are constantly trying to convince us that it is ours, but it is not ours, it is royal. Real estate always belongs to the sovereign. And the value of real estate is actually a function of the state. That is, if gangs start walking the streets here tomorrow, then all real estate will depreciate, while it itself will not change in any way. In fact, the value of real estate is a function of the state and the society in which this real estate is located. Therefore, when we talk about the real estate market, we actually have to ask another question: what is the prospect of society in this territory? This is actually one and the same. Of course, some fluctuations related to financial things are possible - there are some planetary things related to the cost of loans. We are all shouting now: make us cheap loans so that we can buy real estate. But you understand that the price of real estate is directly related to the loan interest rate and is inversely related. As soon as loans become cheaper, the price of real estate will increase exactly the same amount. That is, if you measure real estate, roughly speaking, in time, how much you need to work to pay off this loan. This value is much less subject to fluctuations than the interest rate itself or the cost itself. That is, in America, in order to buy a house, you need to pay off the loan within 30 years, on average. You will probably be surprised, but in Ukraine the situation is similar. The average person can buy an average, not very prestigious home on credit in 30 years. You see, therefore this distance in time is unlikely to change much. And you, as an individual, are interested in the distance, because you have only one life, and you cannot afford to wait 100 years. Therefore, you are interested in the distance, not the absolute rate, and you cannot play on this. It can be assumed that interest rates will fall, and real estate will become more expensive. You can't play on this because you are tied to your apartment where you live. You can't sell it and become homeless. It's a completely different story with investors who are not tied to real estate. In general, the global real estate market, if you evaluate it in a measure or on some scale, then you just need to calculate the term: how many years does it take the average person to pay off their average housing. Here, this "average housing" is very important, because, you see, just 30 years ago, the average housing was a "Khrushchevka". And when you ask a question about the real estate market today, you most likely mean something else, not a "Khrushchevka".